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NBA Draft 2020 - College Player Projections

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With the NBA Draft underway, here are the top 60 projected value players based on my ranking system with projected career win shares. These rankings use my college player ratings and adjusts them based on regressions correlating historical NBA performance with college performance, and adjusts for a player's age.

Note: My model only looks at US college players, so international players (like Deni Avdija), and players who did not attend college (like LaMelo Ball) are not on this list. Also - my projections do have a production per season factor, so players with high per possession stats, but little overall playing time (like James Wiseman) can be undervalued.

Another Note: Because my model is looking at historical data, it tends to value Centers a little higher than the current game might suggest it should. This helps explain why players like Vernon Carey and Udoka Azubuike will likely go lower than my rankings would suggest they should.

1: Vernon Carey Jr. - Duke (61.2)...(Drafted #32)
2: Patrick Williams - Florida St. (58.7)...(Drafted #4)
3: Onyeka Okongwu - USC (55.8)...(Drafted #6)
4: Anthony Edwards - Georgia (53.1)...(Drafted #1)
5: Udoka Azubuike - Kansas (52.0)...(Drafted #27)
6: Zeke Nnaji - Arizona (51.8)...(Drafted #22)
7: Isaiah Stewart - Washington (50.7)...(Drafted #16)
8: Devin Vassell - Florida St. (49.1)...(Drafted #11)
9: Daniel Oturu - Minnesota (47.2)...(Drafted #33)
10: Jalen Smith - Maryland (46.6)...(Drafted #10)
11: Nico Mannion - Arizona (45.8)...(Drafted #48)
12: Tyrell Terry - Stanford (45.1)...(Drafted #31)
13: Jahmi'us Ramsey - Texas Tech (45.1)...(Drafted #43)
14: Josh Green - Arizona (43.9)...(Drafted #18)
15: Tre Jones - Duke (43.7)...(Drafted #41)
16: Tyrese Haliburton - Iowa St. (43.5)...(Drafted #12)
17: Obi Toppin - Dayton (43.1)...(Drafted #8)
18: Xavier Tillman - Michigan St. (42.8)...(Drafted #35)
19: Kira Lewis - Alabama (42.8)...(Drafted #13)
20: Reggie Perry - Mississippi St. (42.5)
21: Devon Dotson - Kansas (42.3)
22: Isaac Okoro - Auburn (41.3)...(Drafted #5)
23: Precious Achiuwa - Memphis (40.8)...(Drafted #20)
24: Tyrese Maxey - Kentucky (40.5)...(Drafted #21)
25: Markus Howard - Marquette (40.0)
26: Malachi Flynn - San Diego St. (39.5)...(Drafted #29)
27: Payton Pritchard - Oregon (38.1)...(Drafted #26)
28: Jaden McDaniels - Washington (37.6)...(Drafted #28)
29: Paul Reed - DePaul (37.4)...(Drafted #58)
30: Cassius Stanley - Duke (37.3)...(Drafted #54)
 
31: Tyler Bey - Colorado (36.5)...(Drafted #36)
32: Jalen Harris - Nevada (36.0)...(Drafted #59)
33: Cassius Winston - Michigan St. (35.9)...(Drafted #53)
34: Mason Jones - Arkansas (35.2)
35: Saddiq Bey - Villanova (34.9)...(Drafted #19)
36: C.J. Elleby - Washington St. (34.8)...(Drafted #46)
37: Jordan Nwora - Louisville (34.8)...(Drafted #45)
38: Nate Hinton - Houston (34.7)
39: Emmitt Williams - LSU (34.7)
40: Tyrique Jones - Xavier (34.6)
41: Nick Richards - Kentucky (34.3)...(Drafted #42)
42: Jordan Ford - St. Mary's (34.0)
43: Austin Wiley - Auburn (33.7)
44: Robert Woodard - Mississippi St. (33.2)...(Drafted #40)
45: Omer Yurtseven - Georgetown (33.2)
46: Immanuel Quickley - Kentucky (33.0)...(Drafted #25)
47: Saben Lee - Vanderbilt (33.0)...(Drafted #38)
48: Ashton Hagans - Kentucky (32.9)
49: Cole Anthony - North Carolina (32.7)...(Drafted #15)
50: Skylar Mays - LSU (32.6)...(Drafted #50)
51: Desmond Bane - TCU (32.5)...(Drafted #30)
52: Grant Riller - Charleston (32.2)
53: Sam Merrill - Utah St. (31.8)...(Drafted #60)
54: Elijah Hughes - Syracuse (31.7)...(Drafted #39)
55: Myles Powell - Seton Hall (30.7)
56: Isaiah Joe - Arkansas (29.7)...(Drafted #49)
57: Kaleb Wesson - Ohio St. (29.6)
58: Killian Tillie - Gonzaga (28.0)
59: Tres Tinkle - Oregon St. (27.4)
60: Jon Teske - Michigan (27.2)

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